2025 Qatar GP Analysis
What we witnessed yesterday at the Lusail Circuit wasn’t just a bad race; it was a case study on how to lose a won championship. The 2025 Qatar Grand Prix will go down in history not for the overtakes (which were nearly non-existent), but for McLaren’s strategic collapse, which transformed an “inevitability” into open warfare for Abu Dhabi.
While Red Bull and Max Verstappen celebrate an unexpected gift, the paddock is left trying to understand: how did the team with the fastest car of the season manage to get it so wrong?
Below, we dissect the error, the unlikely heroes, and the explosive scenarios for the grand finale.
The “McLaren Fumble”: Anatomy of a Historic Error
To understand the gravity of the failure, we need to look at the technical context. Due to extreme tire wear and the risk of blowouts, the FIA imposed a mandatory 25-lap limit per stint.
Mathematically, this meant everyone had to make at least two stops. There was no margin to “try and make it to the end.”
The Decisive Moment (Lap 7)
When the Safety Car entered the track on lap seven, the logical decision for any strategist was obvious: Box. Box. Box. It was a “free” stop (less time lost under yellow flags).
-
The Decision: Inexplicably, McLaren kept Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri out on track.
-
The Justification: Team Principal Andrea Stella claimed they “didn’t know if the others would stop.”
-
The Verdict: Experts classified the decision as “absolutely outrageous.” By not pitting, McLaren handed track position and the strategic advantage to Max Verstappen, who didn’t hesitate to capitalize.
The Drivers: Who Won and Who Lost?
Max Verstappen: The Resilient Predator
With a car that hasn’t been the fastest for months, Verstappen did what he does best: he survived and capitalized. He called the victory “another gift” (following McLaren’s errors in Vegas).
-
The Impact: He slashed the deficit to just 12 points. What seemed impossible is now palpable. Max heads to Abu Dhabi “driving for the title,” meaning we will see the most aggressive version of the Dutchman.
Oscar Piastri: The Sacrifice
If there is a victim in this story, it is the Australian. Piastri was described as “flawless” all weekend. He won the Sprint, dominated practice sessions, and had the pace to win the main race by a 15 to 20-second margin.
-
The Reality: The team’s strategy robbed him of a certain victory. Had McLaren got it right, Piastri would now be just 12 points behind Norris, controlling his own destiny. Now, 16 points back, he needs a miracle.
Lando Norris: Luck in Misfortune
Norris finished P4 (promoted to P3 after a Kimi Antonelli error), but it was a damage-limitation race. He questioned the team on the radio (“I want to box”) but was ignored. Lando’s luck was avoiding an even worse “DRS train” behind Fernando Alonso.
Carlos Sainz: The “Phenomenal” Performance
Amid the title fight, Carlos Sainz drove his Williams as if it were a Ferrari. Scoring a podium with the Grove car—described as a “tractor” compared to the McLaren—and beating one of the Papaya cars on track was described as “outrageously good.” Sainz proves, once again, to be one of the most consistent drivers on the grid.
Race Quality: A “Stinker” Saved by Drama
Let’s be honest: in terms of on-track action, the Qatar GP was one of the worst of the year. Overtaking was nearly impossible, and the 25-lap rule created a “strategic procession” similar to Monaco. What saved Sunday from total boredom was exclusively the championship drama and the disbelief at McLaren’s errors. The Lusail circuit, while visually stunning, urgently needs layout revisions (more heavy braking zones) to allow for real racing.
Scenarios for the Grand Finale: Abu Dhabi
We arrive at the final race with three drivers mathematically alive.
-
Lando Norris (Leader)
-
Max Verstappen (-12 points)
-
Oscar Piastri (-16 points)
The Ethical Dilemma: “Papaya Rules” vs. The Title
The hottest discussion for the coming week involves Team Orders. McLaren has prided itself on letting its drivers race (“Papaya Rules”), but this “fairness” might cost them the championship.
The Nightmare Scenario: Imagine the final lap in Abu Dhabi. Verstappen is in P1. Piastri in P3. Norris in P4.
-
If it ends like this, Verstappen is the champion.
-
If Piastri concedes P3 to Norris, Lando is the champion.
Will McLaren ask? Yes. Will Piastri obey? That is the million-dollar question. His manager, Mark Webber, knows that conceding that position destroys Piastri’s authority for 2026. But refusing could implode the team.
Conclusion: Who Will Blink First?
McLaren has the best car, but Red Bull has the best race operation. The error in Qatar proved that speed is nothing without strategy. If Lando Norris loses this title, it will be a strategic defeat worse than 2007.
Abu Dhabi won’t just be a race; it will be a test of nerves.
Did you enjoy this in-depth analysis? Subscribe to our newsletter to receive minute-by-minute updates on the final week of F1!
